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So reloading Twitter and Pokernews updates got me through a way overly long-and-drawn-out sixth grade graduation ceremony Tuesday evening, railing LJ to her eventual 10th-place finish in the $1500 HORSE tourney for a nice five-figure profit.
(Minor rant: can we not try to make the simplest, most trivial events, like children freaking passing the sixth grade, into a two hour program? You reward everyone for doing what they are supposed to do, you devalue truly exceptional accomplishments. Soapbox out.)
And I'll take a slightly different tack from some other blogger reactions to this, along with CK's run last week...
Isn't it about time someone here made a deep run in a WSOP event?
Yeah, I know, small sample sizes in live play, anything can happen in a donkament, blahblahblah...
But dammit, this group has some pretty smart, aggressive, accomplished tournament players. Better than your average donk.
Definitely +EV in a standard WSOP field.
Given the fact that LJ and CK are also
-women
-who can play a strong tourney game
-and thereby throw off 99% of the other donkament meatheads expecting a pushover girly player..
I'm actually not surprised at all they made some money - especially in limit tournaments, where you can survive a stupid suckout, as it doesn't have to cost you your entire stack - and thus bring more skill to bear over time, even with shallow stacks.
Maybe the surprising thing isn't that LJ and CK got deep and cashed - but that it hasn't happened for some other bloggers before now.
Maybe, this group has actually been running bad before 2009, and this is the year skill, variance, and luck combine for a normal expectation...
I tend to believe the difference between bloggers and the live donkament pros isn't as big as everyone else thinks. Don't have low expectations... there are players in this crew who can definitely compete and hang in these large field tournaments.
In the meantime, I'll play bad in the Mookie tonite and dream about reporters live-blogging my play...
"Heff retires to grotto, out before break"
:-)
Moneymaker
1 hour ago
2 comments:
I think it might have to do with sample size as well. According to Al's BBT4 stats, 333 people played at least one event. Out of that 333, probably not more than a dozen have played / will play at least one WSOP event this year. That's less than 4% representation. Then if you start factoring in field sizes and payouts, the numbers start to look more daunting. Then also consider that most of the bloggers play NLHE tournaments, where one bad beat or one bad move will knock you out of a tournament (regardless of skill).
Math is hard.
Yeah, CK, of course it's a slim shot to begin with to cash in a WSOP event - but it's not like those who are playing are completely dead money either.
I just think getting too OMG! about it implies that the rest of us never expected any WSOP
blogger cashes - and I think that shortchanges you and LJ because you guys are good enough to cash to begin with.
I guess I just expect good things despite the odds.. :-)
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