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Wednesday, September 26, 2007

all kinds of decks

let's see...

- played about as bad as you could play HORSE in the WCOOP Saturday - didn't even get to the second rotation, and bounced out in the 1400s like an idiot. Basically, in the Stud rounds, either people kept calling down though behind with marginal hands/draws and spiked a scoop on seventh - or I kept banging away on a semi bluff and they kept looking me up. Making trip sevens on fourth in Stud/8  - (77)47 - and getting scooped by a high-hand only straight containing the case seven hurt too. Oh, and I was trying to put together a hamster cage (don't ask) while keeping track of dead cards, which didn't help - but that's a lame excuse, I was donating my stack even if I was playing in a soundproof booth

Anyhow, structure was odd in that the first Stud rounds (60/120, 80/160) were a pretty big chunk of a 3K starting stack, so I was either going big or going broke in that hour the way I playing. Ick.

- trying to clean and stain a deck that hasn't had any maintenance done to it in billions of years sucks - I think my hand is turning redwood from all the drips and spills from the brush.

- AIPS this Thursday  - limit hold 'em.  Start with 25BB and at 100/200 blinds with 1500 staring stacks at the end of hour 1.. Whee - maybe I cap everything on all streets in level one and see what happens... :-)

- I can't think of anything else. Duke Dog never did this when I was there....

Friday, September 21, 2007

crazy math boy

Something came up the other night - a routine situation, but I kept analyzing it, so I'm going to use some math for once to figure things out.

Turbo Pot Limit Holdem tourney, six handed, 80/160 level. Folds to the button, who pots it to 560 with a stack of 2675. I'm in the small blind, with 2435, and I repot to 1840 with JTs.
BB folds, Button tanks. finally shoves his last 595 in. I call, button has A7s
Flop comes AQ9, I don't catch the open ender, and I'm out.

What I've been thinking about are restealing ranges in general.

1) JTs too weak to resteal with in that spot?
2) Is A7s too weak to race your stack with in that spot?

Why I'm wondering is at the time I did it, I didn't think JTs was that bad a hand to run with there - I thought I could get a laydown from a hand like A7s - figured someone would need AT at least to call there, so I've got fold equity working for me, along with the dead money already in the pot, and even if called, most of the time I'm drawing very live and only a 40-60 dog.

Since everyone else thought I was a muppet, let's run some numbers.

I am assuming the BB folds to a raise and reraise. I'm not smart enough to figure out what happens if he gets in the hand, except that I'm probably crushed by AA/KK and it doesn't really matter.

240 in pot preflop, 800 after the button raise
2560 in pot after I repot
(raising 1780 to pick up 800, but really 2355 for 2675, since if button shoves I must call)
button must call 1280 more to win 2560, but effectively 1875 for 3155, since no one is folding at this point

So, first off, if I can get the button to fold 33% of the time, I get 800 with no risk, After all, he can be on a straight steal open raising the button six-handed, that's always possible.
Let's say button shoves the other 67%.

How do we do, hand range wise?
If button shoves with top 25% of hands (basically, AA-66, suited aces down to A4, and basically any two cards above a 9) - and I am repopping with only the top 10% of hands (AA-77, AT or better, and suited connecting Broadways)

Hand 0:     40.806%      39.03%     01.77%        24502707232     1112248122.00  
{ 66+, A4s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

Hand 1:     59.194%      57.42%     01.77%        36045861164     1112248122.00  
 { 77+, ATs+, KQs, QJs, JTs, ATo+, KQo }

That range seems fine for a SB reraise (basically, JTs is the weakest hand in that range, you wouldn't repot with anything much weaker than that)
It seems wide for a button shove, though. If we tighten it up to top 14% (which equates to raising 20% of hands and folding a third of them to a raise)

Hand 0:     45.979%      43.43%     02.55%        15648955748     918846504.00   
{ 77+, A7s+, KJs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, ATo+, KQo, QJo, JTo }

Hand 1:     54.021%      51.47%     02.55%        18547076620     918846504.00  
 { 77+, ATs+, KQs, QJs, JTs, ATo+, KQo }

ok, for arguement's sake, lets say I have 55% equity and split the difference.

33%  button folds- +800                                                +264
the other 67% of the time, button shoves
55%, win  +2595                                                          +960
45%  lose  -2435                                                           -730
EV +494 chips..... ok, so it's gambly, but plus EV according to range.

However, we know what I 'm holding.

Hand 0:     62.515%      59.38%     03.14%          634415092      33544410.00   
{ 77+, A7s+, KJs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, ATo+, KQo, QJo, JTo }

Hand 1:     37.485%      34.35%     03.14%          366973784      33544410.00   { JTs }

+264, +649, -1022  EV is -109.... boo..... and that's assuming I get a fold a third of the time, in a Turbo tournament where the button has 15-17 blinds.
It becomes slightly +EV if the button folds half the time, but that's supernitty and unrealistic, at least for online play.

Ok, so we've established that according to my range, it's +EV, but my actual holding is slightly -EV. If the button thinks I can play back at him light and widens my perceived holdings, I get called more often and the move drops in EV. Basically, getting the fold makes up most of the value here, so you gotta have a tight image, or have a button that hate races,

What about shoving the A7s? this is a little simpler, since we know no one folds here.
It's shoving 1875 to win 3155,so 1.68-1, or about 37% equity
Assuming I'm repotting with a top 10% hand.

Hand 0:     40.457%      39.09%     01.37%          361455376      12631074.00   { A7s }

Hand 1:     59.543%      58.18%     01.37%          537926636      12631074.00
  { 88+, ATs+,
KQs, QJs, JTs, ATo+, KQo, QJo, JTo }

Even then the A7s is getting the price to call, even though behind my tight restealing range. Basically, by potting and putting in a fifth of the stack preflop, villain is committed to race and stack off unless they know I am a supernit and am only restealing with AA-QQ.

against JTs, A7s is way good, but we're dealing with hand ranges here. A7s can't know what I'm restealing with, and while there a non-zero chance I'm doing it with air, it's far more likely I'm repotting with a pocket pair 88 or better, or with a dominating Ace, leaving A7s with three outs. Even with that in mind, they should call for the price the pot is laying them, especially because there is a small but reasonable chance my holding may not be premium... it might be JTs....

Similarly, the only way that JTs resteal is +EV is if you can get a fold a good percentage of the time, at least a third of the time or more - and that probably doesn't happen in real life. Villain will call too often and race with marginal, but stilll better hands. Maybe on an NL table, where you can shove for your entire stack instead of repot and make the price too steep for a race, it would be better, especially with antes to pick up as extra dead money.

Still, I'm surprised by how well A7s does here vs. a tight restealing range at these stack sizes. It's food for thought, and why I did the exercise. It seems like in medium stack situations I need to call a little looser when open raising and facing a resteal and shove slightly tighter when restealing  - but that doesn't sound right, which naturally means it probably is right.

Anyhow, let's see if Saturday's WCOOP HORSE tourney turns out well for me. GL.


Monday, September 10, 2007

jenn knows futbawl too

while watching the 941st Peyton Manning commercial aired over the weekend, Jenn says.....

"I guess he has to make all that money to support Eli......"

Subtle humor, that wife.... :-)


Friday, September 7, 2007

changing gears, lol donkaments

So, one of the things I've been doing lately to change things up and reduce the tilt factor is switch to low-buyin MTTs and SnGs for most of my play.... While I'm not the best tournament player in the world, I can play a patient TAG game fairly well early on and get deep in a multi-table tournament, and also turn up the donk aggression and be comfortable at the shorthanded, short-stacked late stages of a sit-n-go.

I feel like if I practice good bankroll management, it should be profitable. God knows I see enough people make enough mistakes every time out..... Yeah, it's slumming in the basement of the poker world, but I don't have the time or energy to hang anywhere else at the moment.

Anyway, after a while it gets old getting cold-decked or two-outed for a substantial pot in a cash game, because most of the time it means you just got stacked for a buyin. At least in a tournament, stack sizes may protect you, because you have a shorty covered and it doesn't hurt too bad -  or if you're eliminated, it's just one tourney buyin as opposed to a cash table buyin.

We shall see. I feel like I'm playing well, getting the money in good - I keep taking silly 4-1 beats deep in tournaments where winning the pot would make me a chipleader and losing means I'm out - so I think I'm due for more tourney goodness soon, if I actually had the time to play them more often.

Time will tell.