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Saturday, October 28, 2006

flop a set, i pay u....

I love how I doom myself sometimes....

Of course, the 3-4 buy-in drop I forecast happened while in AC this week. Whee.

It's easiest to sum it all up this way.

* Normal, everyday chances of flopping a set with a pocket pair - 1 in 8

* Chances villain flops a set when Heff has a bigger pocket pair, reraises to isolate preflop, and villain calls out of position, drawing to two outs in a heads up pot. - oh, about 50%
* Chances Heff pays off even when he figures out he's beat, and doubles someone through - oh, about 99%
* Chances Heff flops a set with a pocket pair - about 1 in 100
* Chances Heff flops a set and runs into a bigger flopped set - about 1 in 2

    That, people, is how you can drop that much while playing reasonably decent, tight aggressive poker.

    I had no problems establishing and building a live cash game stack, but I couldn't hang onto it - I can't remember a substantial, large pot I actually won. I'm not sure, but I have a feeling my game is too TAG and predictable at times, and I allow these loose aggressives to play perfectly against me in a raised pot.

    I played two tournaments - managed to get myself up from 5K to 37K in one tournament, get it all in midway through with another big stack with AA vs. QQ preflop, and watched him turn a Q. - then managed to blow off 2/3rd of my stack in another tournament on the FIRST HAND with KK vs. 77 on a (guess what) 766 flop - hello, reverse implied odds, I'm an idiot.

    I'm usually good at split games, but also managed to drop 30BB at a Stud/Omaha mix game by never making a hand, or making second-best hands, or getting rivered, blahblahblah.

    Basically, the trip was a mix of me getting colddecked, and me being a stubborn idiot in refusing to recognize the fact I've fallen behind in a hand. I should have lost some money, but not as much as I did.

    Anyhow, I was thinking about making one more trip next month before the December WSOPC event, but that's probably not going to happen, unless I change my mind. My roll is still fine (down 10% or so, not a deadly loss) but I don't need another session like that anytime soon.

    In other news, the Borgata still is a great room, though not with as many dodos and donks as I remember (prolly should have played more late night sessions, it's hard to make bank in the daytime, as the regular to tourist ratio seems to be worse during the week) Either I'm too aggressive there, or not good enough live, but I go through the worst cash game swings at Borgata's NL games, both plus and minus.
    The Taj and Trop both look like God's Waiting Room, though the Taj at least has an electronic wait list for games now, and is definitely the #2 room in AC.
    Caesars had more tables running than I thought they would in the daytime.
    The Hilton is way south, far from everything, and tries in their own goofy way to be a place to play (cheap $30 poker rate for a room helps), and it's fine for a B-level game.
    Harrah's is such an odd room, and I wonder what kind of side action it will attract in December, or if everything will still be at the Borgata and Taj.

    We shall see, I guess. More TK.

    Heff.

Tuesday, October 24, 2006

strangely heating up....

    Well, I've been moving the bankroll around, pulling a good chunk of it offline for a shot at these WSOPC events at Harrah's AC in early December. Eventually, it will all come out for B&M play, but that will take a bit of time - I need to milk the online cow while I can.
     I've been donking around at Full Tilt and Stars, which are still open to U.S. players, at least until Neteller figures out how to comply with the UIGEA legislation.
Maybe I can make one last online satellite for a big event - Full Tilt's Aussie Millions, or Stars' PCA, both of which are overseas events in January - I figure there's a limited window on the online pokering, so I'm taking advantage of it while I can.
    Obviously, other players are even more desperate for action, because for some reason, I'm on a silly upswing that's brought me to a new bankroll high, mostly playing 2/4 full ring NL, of all things. One thing that's helped is finally getting PokerTracker after the last downswing and systematically analyzing my game. I found a couple of notable things.

    1) Not reraising preflop in position enough, period, regardless of hand strength.
    2) Coldcalling offsuit connected junk, like T9o, in position too much.

    Basically, being too passive preflop, which created issues further along in hands as you get to the flop/turn. So, I tightened up a touch, turned up the aggression a touch, and those small tweaks have worked extremely well.
    Hopefully, it's not variance, but a leap in play that's getting me there - but I'm sure the cold-deck/spewing 4-5 buyins session is coming soon.. :-)

    Anyhow, heading up to AC for a quickie trip this week, to scout things out in advance of December. - I haven't been up there since the Borgata opened their new room in July, so we'll see what the scene is like now.

    Oh, still leading in this series as well, despite missing last Thursday's tourney. Yippee.

    Heff

Monday, October 9, 2006

LOL Donkaments!

OK, so these guys finally sent me my banana....



Since I've cashed in three of the four events I've played, I'm actually leading the overall points race, which provides this lovely winner's prize at the end of the series.

So, I obviously have to go for it now.


Also, since things are still legal for the moment, I guess wins like this are OK, eh?



Whee. I may have attained true tourney donkness.

Until the hammer of Frist smites us all down....

Is this what they mean by Nero fiddling while Rome burned?


Heff

Tuesday, October 3, 2006

uhoh, oopsie....

OK, so obviously thiscan throw a giant wrench into pokering......

Hmm. Where to begin?

  Anyone who thinks this is going to get fixed/repealed/changed anytime soon is dreaming, I think. As far as Congress is concerned, it's a dead issue, they're moving on to other, more important things (covering for guys trolling for underage boys, etc.)

   Regardless of how many people play poker, how it's a game of skill and chance, how much money could be acquired through proper regulation and taxation, as other "legal gambling" provides (lotteries and horse racing are notably and hypocritically exempted from these bills) --- ultimately, to Joe Momo, or Joe Congressman, this is all just a bunch of computer nerds and degenerate gamblers whining about not being able to play a game.

  All the grumbling, posting, and effort at a grassroots level is pointless. The only things that will bring back online poker legally are:

1) heavy backing and lobbying, whether through brick and mortar casino companies (Harrah's, MGM, etc) and/or the big online poker sites WITHOUT the stupid blackjack and sportsbook tie-ins (Full Tilt and PokerStars come to mind), along with some combination of American players, that can work to get a rider attached to a bill to carve out some kind of legal exemption....

2) heavy analysis of the bill's language and enforcement, which may provide some backdoor or loophole for players to continue to play and move funds on and off the online poker rooms.

   It's not looking good, though. Some sites are planning to just drop their US player accounts - backdoors are meaningless without a place to play. There are thoughts that maybe using checks instead of EFTs will be workable, or that the banking industry will find enforcement and compliance virtually impossible, so online poker will fall back into the gray - not really legal or illegal - world.

   Which is fine until the next politician wants to make online gaming an issue. Or the IRS really wants to examine all the money coming in and out of players' bank accounts. Or whatever. The point is, the online poker game, unless legalized and regulated, will ALWAYS have its head in the guillotine, just waiting for someone to take a shot at pulling the switch.

  So, what am I doing? Pulling the majority of my bankroll out of the online sites. Waiting to see if I should cash out or let things shake out for a few weeks. Limiting online play to Full Tilt and PokerStars with a small percentage of available money, until those sites drop US players or not. Generally, taking a wait and see approach, but realizing that it's highly likely that I won't be playing online in 2007, if not sooner. Wondering if my live game is sharp enough for a few more AC trips than usual.

Anyhow, we'll see what happens. All I know is, once someone catches you poaching free cable, it's not like they ever forget you ever had it and give it back. Online gaming hit the radar screen, and it's not dropping off The Man's scope anytime soon. The sooner you deal with it, the better we can move on to what's next, and make the next move.

Heff