I love how I doom myself sometimes....
Of course, the 3-4 buy-in drop I forecast happened while in AC this week. Whee.
It's easiest to sum it all up this way.
* Normal, everyday chances of flopping a set with a pocket pair - 1 in 8
* Chances villain flops a set when Heff has a bigger pocket pair, reraises to isolate preflop, and villain calls out of position, drawing to two outs in a heads up pot. - oh, about 50%
* Chances Heff pays off even when he figures out he's beat, and doubles someone through - oh, about 99%
* Chances Heff flops a set with a pocket pair - about 1 in 100
* Chances Heff flops a set and runs into a bigger flopped set - about 1 in 2
That, people, is how you can drop that much while playing reasonably decent, tight aggressive poker.
I had no problems establishing and building a live cash game stack, but I couldn't hang onto it - I can't remember a substantial, large pot I actually won. I'm not sure, but I have a feeling my game is too TAG and predictable at times, and I allow these loose aggressives to play perfectly against me in a raised pot.
I played two tournaments - managed to get myself up from 5K to 37K in one tournament, get it all in midway through with another big stack with AA vs. QQ preflop, and watched him turn a Q. - then managed to blow off 2/3rd of my stack in another tournament on the FIRST HAND with KK vs. 77 on a (guess what) 766 flop - hello, reverse implied odds, I'm an idiot.
I'm usually good at split games, but also managed to drop 30BB at a Stud/Omaha mix game by never making a hand, or making second-best hands, or getting rivered, blahblahblah.
Basically, the trip was a mix of me getting colddecked, and me being a stubborn idiot in refusing to recognize the fact I've fallen behind in a hand. I should have lost some money, but not as much as I did.
Anyhow, I was thinking about making one more trip next month before the December WSOPC event, but that's probably not going to happen, unless I change my mind. My roll is still fine (down 10% or so, not a deadly loss) but I don't need another session like that anytime soon.
In other news, the Borgata still is a great room, though not with as many dodos and donks as I remember (prolly should have played more late night sessions, it's hard to make bank in the daytime, as the regular to tourist ratio seems to be worse during the week) Either I'm too aggressive there, or not good enough live, but I go through the worst cash game swings at Borgata's NL games, both plus and minus.
The Taj and Trop both look like God's Waiting Room, though the Taj at least has an electronic wait list for games now, and is definitely the #2 room in AC.
Caesars had more tables running than I thought they would in the daytime.
The Hilton is way south, far from everything, and tries in their own goofy way to be a place to play (cheap $30 poker rate for a room helps), and it's fine for a B-level game.
Harrah's is such an odd room, and I wonder what kind of side action it will attract in December, or if everything will still be at the Borgata and Taj.
We shall see, I guess. More TK.
Mailbag: Making 3- and 4-Bet Decisions
21 hours ago